BOEING'S COMPREHENSIVE VALUATION

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Boeing's comprehensive valuation
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Описание

The objective of this work is a comprehensive fundamental assessment of the intrinsic (fair) value of The Boeing Company and its shares, which will allow for a substantiated conclusion regarding their investment attractiveness at the current stage.

To achieve this objective, the following tasks need to be accomplished:

1. Analyze Boeing's business model, competitive position, and corporate governance, identifying the key forces determining its ability to generate cash flows.

2. Conduct a detailed analysis of the company's financial statements over the past five years (2019–2023), paying special attention to the dynamics of profitability, liquidity, and financial stability during the crisis period.

3. Based on the analysis, formulate realistic assumptions and build a financial model for future cash flows.

4. Perform a valuation of the company using three classic methods: the discounted free cash flow to the firm (DCF) model, the dividend discount model (DDM) – considering its limitations for Boeing – and a relative valuation based on multiples compared to a peer group.

5. Analyze the spectrum of investment risks and quantitatively assess the uncertainty associated with key assumptions through scenario analysis (optimistic, base, pessimistic scenarios) and sensitivity analysis.

6. Based on a synthesis of the obtained results, determine a target share price and formulate a well–argued investment recommendation.

Оглавление

Introduction 3

1 Company Overview and Competitive Position  6

1.1 Company General Information    6

1.2 Business Description 7

1.3 Industry Overview and Competitive Analysis 12

2 Financial Analysis      15

2.1 Analysis of Historical Financial Statements    15

2.2 Company Valuation 21

2.3 Relative Valuation   29

3 Risk Analysis and Modeling 33

3.1 Identification of Key Risks 33

3.2 Sensitivity Analysis of the DCF Model 38

3.3Conclusions and Recommendations      41

Conclusion 51

References 53

Appendices 1–10 55

Список литературы

1. Boeing Company. Annual Report on Form 10–K for the fiscal years 2020–2023 [Electronic resource]. – Available at: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=12927 (accessed: 10.04.2024).

2. Boeing Company. Quarterly Report on Form 10–K for Q1–Q4 2023–2024 [Electronic resource]. – Available at: https://www.sec.gov/edgar (accessed: 10.04.2024).

3. Boeing Current Market Outlook 2023–2042. – Seattle: Boeing Company, 2023. – 78 p.

4. Boeing Investor Relations: Presentations and Earnings Calls [Electronic resource]. – Available at: https://investors.boeing.com/ (accessed: 10.04.2024).

5. Bloomberg Terminal [Electronic resource]: database. – Available at: subscription (accessed: 10.04.2024).

6. Refinitiv Eikon [Electronic resource]: database. – Available at: subscription (accessed: 10.04.2024).

7. Yahoo Finance. Historical Data for Boeing Co. (BA) [Electronic resource]. – Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/ (accessed: 10.04.2024).

8. Seeking Alpha. Boeing (BA): News and Analysis [Electronic resource]. – Available at: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BA (accessed: 10.04.2024).

9. International Air Transport Association (IATA). Annual Review 2023 & Industry Outlook. – Montreal: IATA, 2023. – 65 p.

10. International Air Transport Association (IATA). Air Passenger Market Analysis – April 2024 [Electronic resource]. – Available at: https://www.iata.org/ (accessed: 10.04.2024).

11. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Statements on Boeing 737 MAX [Electronic resource]. – Available at: https://www.faa.gov/ (accessed: 10.04.2024).

12. Airbus S.E. Global Market Forecast (GMF) 2023–2042. – Toulouse: Airbus S.E., 2023. – 102 p.

13. Damodaran, A. Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset / A. Damodaran. – 4th ed. – Hoboken: Wiley, 2022. – 992 p.

14. Koller, T. Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies / T. Koller, M. Goedhart, D. Wessels. – 7th ed. – Hoboken: Wiley, 2020. – 848 p.

15. Porter, M. E. The Five Competitive Forces That Shape Strategy // Harvard Business Review. – 2008. – Vol. 86, No. 1. – P. 78–93.

16. Penman, S. H. Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation / S. H. Penman. – 5th ed. – New York: McGraw–Hill Education, 2013. – 754 p.

17. Fernandez, P. A Practical Guide to Company Valuation / P. Fernandez. – 6th ed. – Barcelona: IESE Business School, 2024. – 312 p.

18. Epstein, R. Boeing: Navigating the Recovery – Initiation of Coverage / R. Epstein. – New York: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 2024. – 45 p.

19. Herbert, K. Boeing Company (BA) – Q4 2023 Earnings Review / K. Herbert. – Toronto: RBC Capital Markets, 2024. – 22 p.

20. Strom, D. Boeing Co BA: Fair Value Estimate & Risk / D. Strom. – Chicago: Morningstar, 2024. – 15 p.

21. Goldman, S. US Aerospace & Defense: 2024 Outlook / S. Goldman. – New York: Goldman Sachs Equity Research, 2023. – 60 p.

22. Elson, Ch. Governance Lessons from the Boeing Debacle // Wall Street Journal. – 2023. – 15 Oct. – Available at: https://www.wsj.com/ (accessed: 10.04.2024).

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